One of the great things about Linux (on the desktop) is the wide variety of options available. Linux, as many would say, “is all about choice”.
KDE or GNOME? RPM or Dpkg (Deb)? Red Hat or Debian? The various options available to Linux Desktop distros (distributions) are almost… limitless.
But which options, exactly, are people using? And how has that changed over the last several years? And what does that tell us about where Desktop Linux is going?
This is all incredibly difficult to answer due, in large part, to the difficulty of gathering reliable numbers on the usage of the various desktop Linux versions out there. And, even when good numbers are available for one Linux distribution, often those numbers are collected using a different method than another distribution.
The best source that I know of for “ranking” all of the various distros (based on how many hits each gets per day) is DistroWatch. This isn’t going to be 100% accurate, but it’ll give us a good indication on trending (and, from my experience, it seems to be fairly accurate).
So I took a look at the numbers DistroWatch provides for all of the “top distros” (this was me simply choosing the most popular distros over the course of several years) and put them in a chart covering 2003 to the present day.
Popularity Per Distro (Click for larger view)
Okay. That’s… interesting. And it gives us an intriguing peek at growth over the years. But these numbers are skewed by DistroWatch.com’s own growth as well as the general growth of Linux. What I really want is a percentage of the total Linux Desktop market-share…
So I took those numbers. Totalled them up. And created a chart of the percentage each Linux distro had, on average, during the course of each year. Obviously many great Linux distros are left out of this, and that has an impact on the numbers, but these represent the majority of the market-share at any point.
Distro Popularity Percentage (Click for larger view)
Now there we go! This paints a much more realistic picture of the market-share each Linux distro had during any given year (obviously still not 100% accurate… but about as close as we’re going to get).
Okay, a few things really jump out here.
2003/2004 was a very different time than what we have now:
- Mandriva (then called Mandrake) was king back in 2003, 2004!
- Fedora and KNOPPIX were in amazing shape with percentages in the teens.
- Debian, Gentoo and Suse are all doing quite well.
Then, in 2005, Ubuntu happened. Sure, it was released first in 2004… but in 2005, Ubuntu broke the 20% mark to become the “king of Linux distros”.
During that same year Red Hat and Mandriva took a hit that they never fully recovered from. Just look at that light blue line as it dips southward. Poor, poor Mandriva.
Flash forward to today… and things seem to have stabilized a bit. The only dramatic motion seems to be the decline of PCLinuxOS (from its perch as a “rival to Ubuntu” in 2007, down to the middle of the pack by the very next year) and, almost at the same time, the rise of Linux Mint, who came out of, seemingly, nowhere to challenge Fedora and openSuse for the number two spot.
But what does this mean? Does this give us any indication of where things are heading? To figure that out I decided to consolidate this chart to represent the “core” distros. Most distributions are built on top of other existing Linux distributions (Linux Mint, for example was based on Ubuntu). So I rolled all of these distros (where relevant) up into 4 “parent” distros.
Parent Distro % (Click for larger view)
In 2003 “Red Hat was Linux”. Or at least this is how many people thought. And, with a 40% market-share, of Red Hat and Red Hat-based Linux distros… that seems about right!
Then there’s that pesky 2005 again. Ubuntu-based distros (including Kubuntu, etc.) hit 25%. Catapulting Debian (which Ubuntu is, itself, based upon) up to over 45% and knocking Red Hat down to 30%. (With me so far?)
And Suse / openSuse… has stayed pretty much steady around 10% all these years (old reliable!).
Red Hat-based distros made a small come-back during 2008, but seem to be on the decline again.
Worth noting: Ubuntu-based is sitting at over 40%, with Debian-based sitting only a slight few percentage points higher (this is even with Debian proper taken into consideration).
What does this all mean?
- The vast majority of all Debian-based distributions of Linux (in terms of market-share)… are also Ubuntu-based.
- Fedora (and derived distros) are, by no means, out of the game. Owning over 25% of the market is a pretty big deal no matter how you look at it.
- But. Fedora is on a downward slide right now in usage it seems. While Ubuntu is on a slow up-tick (or staying roughly the same depending on how you look at it).
While I was at it, I wanted to also see which Desktop Environment each of these distros used. And how each stacked up over the years in terms of market-share.
Desktop Environment % (Click for larger view)
Holy guacamole!
I knew KDE was a bit down (in usage) from its heyday. But that’s a pretty extreme drop!
KDE and Gnome seem to have, over the course of about 3 years, switched spots. With most of the movement in… you guessed it… 2005. It’s that silly little Ubuntu again. When Ubuntu hit, and went big, it pulled Gnome up with it.
And KDE still seems to be on a slight downward slope (despite or, perhaps because of, the release of KDE 4).
So where does that leave us? Where is desktop Linux heading?
There are still some unknowns. But a few things are becoming clear:
The “Linux World” (and, by that, I mean people who actually use Linux as a desktop system) is gravitating towards Ubuntu and GNOME. In large numbers.
Does that mean KDE, Fedora, Suse, etc. are dead? No sir! All of the distros listed above still command a very healthy market-share and dedicated user base.
But these other distros are quickly becoming “Ubuntu Alternatives“.
That’s a pretty major change from where things stood in 2003.
And I think it is awesome.
Why? I’ll give you two big reasons:
- It allows a clear, consistent image of “Linux” to be portrayed to the general public.
- It allows developers (of both open source and closed source commercial software) to focus on one single environment first. This can save a great deal of time and money, and allow for higher quality software.
Some people may not like this (okay… I know many people who don’t like this), but it simply looks to be the way things are going. I’d be willing to bet that, in a few years, people will equate “Ubuntu” with “Linux”.
But really, it’s not like the other choices have gone away. And it’s not like the Linux Action Show is going to suddenly become the “Ubuntu Action Show” or something nutty like that. But the numbers don’t lie.
February 26th, 2010 - 12:54 am
At the risk of coming off as a fanboy, where did the numbers for the desktop environment come from?
February 26th, 2010 - 1:15 am
The Desktop Environment numbers are based on the default environment for all of the distros covered… and calculated with the distro %’s.
February 26th, 2010 - 1:34 am
Have you compared the KDE drop to the release and adoption of KDE 4? I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a correlation there…
February 26th, 2010 - 2:31 am
What surprises me is that i expected the drop for KDE around 4.0 being released to be much harsher.
I wouldnt be surprised to see KDE make up quite a bit of that this year.
February 26th, 2010 - 2:46 am
Thanks for running those numbers. This is a great article!
February 26th, 2010 - 3:03 am
I agree with thatoneguy–I’d expect to see KDE trending upwards now that it’s starting to stabilize. If installing it on Ubuntu (after using Gnome as a base) would ever work right, I’d think they’d get even more converts.
I’m surprised that the percentage of alternate desktops is growing–I didn’t see that coming.
One question I had: in the ‘parent’ distros chart, is Ubuntu counted as a Debian distro? or to put it another way, is Debian’s 45% in 2009 made up of 40% Ubuntu and 5% something else? Adding the numbers up, it would seem like it would have to be, but math has never been my strong suit
February 26th, 2010 - 3:03 am
Out of curiosity, why did you include Ubuntu in the graph of parent distros if it’s based on Debian?
February 26th, 2010 - 3:41 am
The majority of “other” DEs is likely XFCE (xubuntu). I’ve noticed a lot more people running XFCE recently.
I find it interesting that despite the Novell-MS deal (and the uproar it caused), It had no negative effect on SUSE. It can be argued that it had a positvie effect after a huge fall in 2006. The deal was signed very late 2006
Debian and Ubuntu almost seem to grow in the same pattern, which makes it seem that ubuntu is not taking market share from “pure” debian and is actually getting users from non-debian based distros (and a heck-of-a-lot of linux virgins)
In general the whole linux communtity saw growth and 2007 and then lost market share in 2008 (why is that?)
It’s such a pity ubuntu decided to make GNOME it’s official WM. KDE offers so much more. you cant even drag icon from the menu to the desktop in GNOME.
*ducks*
February 26th, 2010 - 3:42 am
@Aaron
Bryan’s article says that the Debian line shows the total Debian based distros, which include the ‘buntu’s. He also is helping us see the percentage of the Debian users who are using the ‘buntu strain within Debian. So actually, he has done both!
February 26th, 2010 - 6:38 am
Gosh, I’m reflected in those numbers! The last Fedora I used as FC6, and I’ve taken to installing Ubuntu on my home machines and using Xubuntu in Vbox/VMware. Why? Two reasons:
1) I was really f’n busy and if Fedora failed, I was too tired to wrench on it–Ubuntu was more stable
2) My wife and neighbors were getting new computers, and Ubuntu was a pretty darned good choice. I had to start using it so I could be the best resource for them.
I really think that I didn’t miss much by choosing Ubuntu. If I wanted to sail close to the wind, or actually actively contribute to a distro, I’d probably still be using Fedora. But I never really had time to master Rawhide, and that’s a line I’m still REALLY UNLIKELY to ever cross.
February 26th, 2010 - 10:04 am
I can’t believe you call them “Ubuntu alternatives”. Ubuntu is a piece of crap.
February 26th, 2010 - 12:59 pm
I’ve witnessed the evolution of the Linux desktop chaos first hand for ten years, from the lower hardware layers and APIs, to higher level software stacks and apps. For Linux-desktop to gain momentum, some level of unification and standardization is necessary. Focus on something, make it /good/, make it /stable/, make the /APIs standard/, collaborate. Ten different competing alternatives for everything does not make up a good desktop platform. Sometimes you need to pull in the same direction to get somewhere.
I think Ubuntu is a solid product as a whole. It provides a respectable “default” choice for new users, common users and passionate computer experts alike. And the community and collaboration tools are nice. Ubuntu is a unifying force to be reckoned with on the desktop. I like it IMNSHO.
February 26th, 2010 - 1:05 pm
@tuplad, c’mon, leave the ‘buntus alone!
Actually, I am quite happy with my Mint. I know others are happy with their own “Ubuntu alternatives”. If you don’t like it, well, just be happy where you are! Instead of being negative, just say good things about your distro of choice. I even say good things about elive and PCLinuxOS which I also used for about a year each!
February 26th, 2010 - 1:08 pm
Desktop GNU/Linux is all about choice; I hope as more and more people get into the idea of GNU/Linux, more and more will begin to see and use other desktops and distros.
February 26th, 2010 - 1:43 pm
I never trusted distrowatch as any kind of authority on distro usage since PCLinuxOS used to be top of the charts for a whole year or so. I’ve still never seen a PC running it.
It’s probably safe to make a few assumptions though about the popularity of ubuntu+gnome. redhat/centos + debian are probably still the server kings though.
February 26th, 2010 - 1:58 pm
@lefty.crupps
If GNU/Linux is going to have the slightest chance of competing and keeping up with any other big OS in the /desktop arena/, then desktop-Linux needs to be a lot more about something sane and more or less standardized that works.
Of course, not everyone thinks the goal of GNU/Linux should be “the conquest of the desktop”, that’s totally understandable and that’s freedom, do with it and use it however you like. But to attract more users, and get more people interested in GNU/Linux and free software, then the software has to be modern and work. Therefore I hope new users will choose the best and most common desktop/distro alternative, to give it momentum and help it become even better.
February 26th, 2010 - 5:00 pm
Cool. Not only do I use a niche OS (Linux), I also use a niche distro (Gentoo) on my niche OS. And on my niche OS in my niche distro, I use a niche desktop (Xfce). It’s a wonder I don’t implode from a technological inferiority complex. But I believe Young Indiana Jones said it best: “Everyone’s lost but me.”
February 26th, 2010 - 5:20 pm
The variety of options is what allowed Ubuntu to take off in the first place. It seems odd that people are advocating solidifying around Ubuntu. The same arguments were made for rallying around RedHat before 2005. Didn’t we see how well that worked with the Linux Standard Base?
Distrowatch may give a general idea of trends, but it is really not worth citing. The margins of error are to large. PCLinuxOS is a great example of that. Fedora is reporting continual growth in the number of downloads. They aren’t declining. They simply aren’t growing as fast as Ubuntu.
What is sad is that so much has changed since 2003 and 2005, yet the Linux community still holds to so many of those mindsets. “Ubunutu is the best for new users” is a great example. Ubuntu was great out of the gate, but that field has leveled out significantly.
Most of the distros took the good from Ubuntu and rolled it into their own. Vast portions of the distros have nearly exactly the same look, feel, and layout for new users. New users don’t know that Terminal is in Accessories in one and System in the other. They don’t know what Terminal is to begin with. They do know that there is a bar across the top with clocks and icons on the right and the “Start Menu” on the left.
I like and use Ubuntu, but I wish some of the fan-boys would catch on and accept the fact that it isn’t the best at everything. If Google can be the new Microsoft, it is only a matter of time before Canonical becomes the new Google going the way they are.
February 26th, 2010 - 7:19 pm
The question I want to see answered is Server vs Desktop. How many Linux installations are there which are running in data centers, what is the breakdown of the distros there, and how do those numbers compare to the numbers presented in this article?
Arguably, Distrowatch is used by Linux enthusiasts who are exploring what distros are available. That mentality is very different than an IT department choosing a distro for its back-end infrastructure. I posit that the Distrowatch data is therefore skewed towards hobbyist Desktop deployments. It’s also part of a closed loop - a certain distro gets some buzz, which means more people check it out on Distrowatch, which leads to more buzz…
I agree that Ubuntu makes a great desktop - the hardware support is excellent (including a good UX for choice of FOSS vs. closed drivers), and the UI is about as good as any other distro I’ve tried. If I were going to suggest a Linux distro for my mother, I’d choose Ubuntu.
However, when I set up a server, I use CentOS/RHEL. No, it’s not running the latest version of… well, anything… but that’s the point - RH provides a stable platform across a period of several years, with minor releases including upgrades for hardware and back-ported patches (mostly for security).
Not trying to start a distro fight here - just trying to give an example of different distros for different purposes potentially skewing the beautifully-presented results.
February 26th, 2010 - 7:49 pm
Not a fan of using Distro Watch hits as a metric for OS popularity. I use Linux, and I haven’t been there for years. Let’s say that I go there. I’m an openSUSE user. Am I going to check out the openSUSE portion of DistroWatch? Why would I? I’ve been using it for a while, and I’m happy with it. The default home page for pre-installed browsers (Konqueror, Firefox, whatever Gnome is using these days) is the openSUSE.org website, so it’s not like I’d need Distro Watch to see what’s new and exciting in the distro I use - I already know how to go right to the source. If anything, I might go to Distro Watch to see what the “competition” is up to.
I also don’t see how “default desktop environment” is of any use at all. Let’s take my openSUSE for example. Up until recently, the DVD image HAD no default. During the install process, there were choices for Gnome, KDE, or other, and none of the radio buttons were selected. Now, you’ve got essentially the same screen in the install but one of those buttons has been preselected. It is absolutely trivial to hit one of the other buttons. It’s also worth noting that for at least the past couple years you had your choice of Gnome or KDE live cd’s.
And what did you do about distros such as Arch and Gentoo? They don’t even have a default GUI, do they? Did they just get counted in “other”?
February 26th, 2010 - 9:55 pm
I work in game development and in just the past 3 to 4 years I’ve seen Linux go from “Hell, no - we’re not touching that crap!” to “Can we port to that?”. The reason for that change is Ubuntu.
The next stage (I feel) is a behavioral study because it’s only recently that customers have been unashamedly hounding developers to create Linux ports. I think Ubuntu brought *consumers* to Linux, people who will actually pay money for software without whining or chanting Stallman quotes and that’s a driving force behind further adoption of the platform and solidifying market leaders.
February 27th, 2010 - 4:34 am
This is an excellent article. It is interesting to what Linux users are “trending” towards. Ubuntu has done something rather amazing, that is take Linux and make it accessible to non-technical consumers.
February 27th, 2010 - 1:25 pm
I’m interested now, did you count Open SuSE as a KDE distro or a Gnome distro?
I think i remember reading somewhere that the open SuSE people estimated that its about a 60-40 split in favour of KDE for them.
Also you wouldn’t be counting the numbers of people that install ubuntu or debian…. and then install KDE after. Judging by the number of articles that you see on tech sites that instruct you to do just that, i’d expect it’d be a larger percentage than perhaps you might expect.
February 27th, 2010 - 6:02 pm
Ok, so over the last years the landscape has changed radically. New distros have usurped the throne, KDE and Gnome has switched places in the hierarchy.
But then you make a prediction of the future by way of trending the graphs. Ubuntu will grow even more, Gnome will rise even more, this and that is on a downward slope.
From one point of view this is simply stating that things will progress as they do now, which is fine. But in another way you are making the bizarre claim that the Linux community changes totally after you’ve made your prediction. If we instead assume that the behaviour of the linux community stays the same, then the prediction must be that in a few years, yet another “dark horse” will rise and the rankings will be shuffled, not that who’s No.1 today will be even bigger tomorrow.
Take the plot of Gnome, KDE and “others” for instance. I could just as well look at that graph and claim that Gnome is at a fairly steady size while KDE is being consumed by someone in the “others” category. Switching back to trending again I could claim that 2013 will see KDE relegated to third place and the for now unknown kid on the block will rise to challenge Gnome itself.
In short, thanks for the article, I thoroughly enjoy discussing this kind of data mining
February 27th, 2010 - 9:22 pm
Well programmed software works on all Linux distributions. I see no reason to prefer only one distribution.
I’m pretty sure that there will be always many popular distributions. Ubuntu can’t stand by their own alone. It depends heavily on Debian and Fedora at the moment.
February 28th, 2010 - 11:30 am
Ubuntu seems like the best Desktop Linux distro because of it’s ease of installation and making things easy for the users.
I do not know why some people have issues with Ubuntu considering that most other distros can be so cumbersome.
Not everyone wants to be using a command line to install or fix stuff. And when some hardware does not work, I care a hoot about reasons such as no driver supported. And no I can’t write a device driver on my own.
Yeah, maybe we are dumb if not being able to use commands in a shell makes us that. But those trends do signal that Ubuntu is the best Desktop Linux for now.
February 28th, 2010 - 4:21 pm
Poor Damned Small Linux!
Well, it is a Debian-based distro (if you can really call it a distro - talk about bare bones and no frills).
Has a book on Amazon and can be put on a flash drive.
Guess it’ll be the back-water Linux for the so-called Linux hobbyist that want to stitch their own thing together. I mess with it as a starting point for creating “appliance” servers.
March 1st, 2010 - 3:04 am
I’m not sure what happened but the better with windows thing by asus seems to have gone bye bye
http://itsbetterwithwindows.com/
is this a new development or have I been in la-la land
March 1st, 2010 - 1:21 pm
Why is ‘choice’ so praised? We only have TCP/IP rather than a mess of competing formats (like IPX) and this is a *good* thing. In a sensible, sane, world the only time there are generally two+ mutually exclusive ways of doing something it is because one way is on it’s way to obsolesence (such as PATA, .doc, USB1, etc) and even then backward compatability is often maintained.
Yet the Linux community thrives on having dozens of different package formats, filesystem layouts, API’s, desktop environments and praise this mess as ‘choice’ where in any other environment it would be (and rightfully so) called a splintered mess.
Nobody would praise the fact that only certain web browsers work on certain web pages, yet the ‘choice’ of RPM, YasT, APT, Portage etc, etc, etc in which software for one simply wont work (or wont work properly) on another one is somehow innovative and a good thing?
And all the FOSS zealots continue to slam MS for breaking standards, yet they are entirely unable to come up with and agree on standards for even the simplest of things, like sound API’s, desktop API’s and package formats.
And then this almighty mess is celebrated as ‘choice’, as in you get to choose which small subset of the Linux world will be able to run.
In short implementation choice is good, choice in standards is bad. If all you do is praise this mess then they’ll just continue to make it.
March 2nd, 2010 - 6:34 am
RedHat’s decline in the desktop market can be directly traced to their dropping the official “Red Hat” line after RH9 at the end of 2003. Fedora Core 1 was a real piece of junk. RedHat doesn’t care about the average end-user for the desktop. They compete solely for the enterprise server (and somewhat in the enterprise desktop, but not really). Fedora is really only for hard-core Linux folks who know things are going to break and are smart enough to solve it.
Ubuntu appeared at just the right time and took over this RedHat slack.
The support folks in #fedora commonly point clueless users to Ubuntu.
March 2nd, 2010 - 7:35 pm
> RedHat doesn’t care about the average end-user for the desktop
Then why are they developing GNOME, glib, gtk+, PulseAudio, PackageManager, Color Manager, graphics stack (drivers for “gamer’s” graphics cards), etc. [1] ? Tons of features that enterprise users doesn’t need.
[1] http://fedoraproject.org/wiki/RedHatContributions
Fedora developers doesn’t care about closed source software. It’s a one thing which makes Fedora different to Ubuntu and one thing that many of Linux users seems to see as a bad thing.
Without Fedora and Red Hat/Fedora’s contributions Linux is not going anywhere you liked it or not. Just choose a distribution which suits best for your needs
March 4th, 2010 - 10:35 pm
This has been my thinking for a while. There’s no need to push for a standard because it will happen naturally when there are clearer answers as to which way we should go. Maybe in a few years, some amazing distro will dethrone Ubuntu, causing more unification.
Kerberos, your argument fails because, while TCP/IP is something we must all use for our computers to work together, most Linux choices harmlessly coexist. I can run KDE apps on my Gnome desktop, I can route my sound servers into each other, I can install RPMs on my Ubuntu machine (haven’t done that in a while). This is a problem no one’s fixed because it’s not really much of a problem, an annoying fact at most.
March 7th, 2010 - 9:57 am
@Jonathan,
Kerberos is entirely correct. Where YOU fail is realizing that the Linux situation is complete madness and is indicative of its < 1% desktop status.
March 11th, 2010 - 2:28 am
I agree with Jonathan I just recently installed an RPM on my Ubuntu system yesterday without any problem whatsoever I also regularly run dolphin and Quantum Plus not to mention many other KDE aps….
As for ease of use….. My brother in law who just uses his system for browsing and email who uses a super old system running windows 98se.
One day he came and said to me that he got told by his ISP that he needs a newer version of Firefox to read his email, and would I be able to set him with with a new version of Firefox…. I said not on windows 98, that he had 2 choices, to upgrade his entire system or just install Linux….. he opted for Linux…. So I set up Ubuntu Linux with the LXDE desktop which runs very light along with the latest version of Firefox. He has no serious computer expertise at all, and he has had absolutely no problems whatsoever. He absolutely loves Linux now!
March 13th, 2010 - 10:22 am
I think that these numbers do not reflect the reality of just how much Ubuntu is up in front of other distros. I’ve installed Ubuntu to my dad, sister, girlfriend, 2 of my friends who use computer just for surfing internet and writing documents. They will never visit Distrowatch. And the was majority of such users use Ubuntu, since it’s the most popular and user friendly platform. Not many people will install Fedora of Gentoo to such users, they will go with simplest solution, Ubuntu or Mint. Us, Linux geeks go to Distrowatch, and we never click on Ubuntu, we know everything about Ubuntu, Ubuntu is poping up wherever you go. There are also more and more Linux users that just want to surf securely, read their mail, play movies and listening to music. And the percentage of these people is much more running Ubuntu than any other distro.
So, basically yes Ubuntu is becoming Linux desktop it self, but I think much more than these numbers show.
So when some people complain that they don’t want to do software for linux because they have to do all those debs, rmps, xyzs… that problem objectively doesn’t exist anymore, it’s enough to do one for debian/ubuntu and the other one for red hat/fedora and that’s it. I know it sounds harsh for most people using other distros but if someone is going to spend their time and money to maximize their market share they need to be pragmatic, meaning; I’ll do a windows version… and if he can get a few more from Linux, he’ll do one for the distribution that is used by vast majority of Desktop users (of course, if it’s a desktop application).
March 13th, 2010 - 7:55 pm
I think it would be interesting to try and figure out the effect of ubuntu on the KDE/Gnome numbers. From a glance at the graphs it seems likely substantial. I know that it mirrors my use - I used Mandrake and Fedora (KDE) until around 2005, and since then I have been using either Ubuntu or openSuse (both with Gnome). I think KDE 4.3 is great, and once i get my hands on an official 4.4 Opensuse release, I might start using that. Nevertheless, the questions that remain for me are `1) how many linux users followed the migration? Or are the numbers accounted for largely by new linux users (which are more likely to visit Distrowatch.org)? Just looking at the raw hits (table 1) looks to me that there is at least a 2x increase in the total hits (which may reflect distrowatch popularity) but IF that represents general linux usage than the the relative growth of Gnome MIGHT not be at the expense of KDE. I know I am on pretty shaky ground with that analysis, but interesting article! and great podcast BTW
April 25th, 2010 - 11:09 pm
linux has more users too, so the other distros do have a good base
anyway i think fedora will rise quite a bit thanks to Btrfs (butter) and system rollbacks
testing and trying to break fedora will be for the first time actually…. FUN
April 29th, 2010 - 1:15 pm
ubuntu usage share constantly decreases (according to your graphs) and yet you come to the conclusion that ubuntu will be “the” distro. congrats.
May 5th, 2010 - 2:08 pm
Fantastic read! I love well summarized statistics.
May 7th, 2010 - 2:57 pm
Personally I believe Ubuntu will be the most used Linux desktop. It’s usability is by far superior to other distros and because of this ease of use it gets far more attention even by general computer magazines which usually focus on windows. all this sets up ubuntu as first choice for people who want to switch their os.
Sure other distros definately contribute a lot to the linux community, however the vast majority of users doesn’t care about that at all. In 2010 you expect your computer to just run smoothly and give you some eye candy, period.
More important for further growth of the Linux desktop is the support for OOXML documents and get commerical apps like Photoshop ported to Linux.
The variety of Linux is awesome, but variety doesn’t mean that you can’t stick to certain standards, like simple stuff like packaging or filesystem structure and so on. Just create a variety of software based on certain standards and you save the devs a lot of effort to port stuff from one distro to another.
@manny
do you really believe that a filesystem will make an impact on distro usage??? the number of people switching to fedora because of a fs change will be rather insignificant.