The (Involuntary) Unification of Linux
One of the great things about Linux (on the desktop) is the wide variety of options available. Linux, as many would say, “is all about choice”.
KDE or GNOME? RPM or Dpkg (Deb)? Red Hat or Debian? The various options available to Linux Desktop distros (distributions) are almost… limitless.
But which options, exactly, are people using? And how has that changed over the last several years? And what does that tell us about where Desktop Linux is going?
This is all incredibly difficult to answer due, in large part, to the difficulty of gathering reliable numbers on the usage of the various desktop Linux versions out there. And, even when good numbers are available for one Linux distribution, often those numbers are collected using a different method than another distribution.
The best source that I know of for “ranking” all of the various distros (based on how many hits each gets per day) is DistroWatch. This isn’t going to be 100% accurate, but it’ll give us a good indication on trending (and, from my experience, it seems to be fairly accurate).
So I took a look at the numbers DistroWatch provides for all of the “top distros” (this was me simply choosing the most popular distros over the course of several years) and put them in a chart covering 2003 to the present day.
Popularity Per Distro (Click for larger view)
Okay. That’s… interesting. And it gives us an intriguing peek at growth over the years. But these numbers are skewed by DistroWatch.com’s own growth as well as the general growth of Linux. What I really want is a percentage of the total Linux Desktop market-share…
So I took those numbers. Totalled them up. And created a chart of the percentage each Linux distro had, on average, during the course of each year. Obviously many great Linux distros are left out of this, and that has an impact on the numbers, but these represent the majority of the market-share at any point.
Distro Popularity Percentage (Click for larger view)
Now there we go! This paints a much more realistic picture of the market-share each Linux distro had during any given year (obviously still not 100% accurate… but about as close as we’re going to get).
Okay, a few things really jump out here.
2003/2004 was a very different time than what we have now:
- Mandriva (then called Mandrake) was king back in 2003, 2004!
- Fedora and KNOPPIX were in amazing shape with percentages in the teens.
- Debian, Gentoo and Suse are all doing quite well.
Then, in 2005, Ubuntu happened. Sure, it was released first in 2004… but in 2005, Ubuntu broke the 20% mark to become the “king of Linux distros”.
During that same year Red Hat and Mandriva took a hit that they never fully recovered from. Just look at that light blue line as it dips southward. Poor, poor Mandriva.
Flash forward to today… and things seem to have stabilized a bit. The only dramatic motion seems to be the decline of PCLinuxOS (from its perch as a “rival to Ubuntu” in 2007, down to the middle of the pack by the very next year) and, almost at the same time, the rise of Linux Mint, who came out of, seemingly, nowhere to challenge Fedora and openSuse for the number two spot.
But what does this mean? Does this give us any indication of where things are heading? To figure that out I decided to consolidate this chart to represent the “core” distros. Most distributions are built on top of other existing Linux distributions (Linux Mint, for example was based on Ubuntu). So I rolled all of these distros (where relevant) up into 4 “parent” distros.
Parent Distro % (Click for larger view)
In 2003 “Red Hat was Linux”. Or at least this is how many people thought. And, with a 40% market-share, of Red Hat and Red Hat-based Linux distros… that seems about right!
Then there’s that pesky 2005 again. Ubuntu-based distros (including Kubuntu, etc.) hit 25%. Catapulting Debian (which Ubuntu is, itself, based upon) up to over 45% and knocking Red Hat down to 30%. (With me so far?)
And Suse / openSuse… has stayed pretty much steady around 10% all these years (old reliable!).
Red Hat-based distros made a small come-back during 2008, but seem to be on the decline again.
Worth noting: Ubuntu-based is sitting at over 40%, with Debian-based sitting only a slight few percentage points higher (this is even with Debian proper taken into consideration).
What does this all mean?
- The vast majority of all Debian-based distributions of Linux (in terms of market-share)… are also Ubuntu-based.
- Fedora (and derived distros) are, by no means, out of the game. Owning over 25% of the market is a pretty big deal no matter how you look at it.
- But. Fedora is on a downward slide right now in usage it seems. While Ubuntu is on a slow up-tick (or staying roughly the same depending on how you look at it).
While I was at it, I wanted to also see which Desktop Environment each of these distros used. And how each stacked up over the years in terms of market-share.
Desktop Environment % (Click for larger view)
Holy guacamole!
I knew KDE was a bit down (in usage) from its heyday. But that’s a pretty extreme drop!
KDE and Gnome seem to have, over the course of about 3 years, switched spots. With most of the movement in… you guessed it… 2005. It’s that silly little Ubuntu again. When Ubuntu hit, and went big, it pulled Gnome up with it.
And KDE still seems to be on a slight downward slope (despite or, perhaps because of, the release of KDE 4).
So where does that leave us? Where is desktop Linux heading?
There are still some unknowns. But a few things are becoming clear:
The “Linux World” (and, by that, I mean people who actually use Linux as a desktop system) is gravitating towards Ubuntu and GNOME. In large numbers.
Does that mean KDE, Fedora, Suse, etc. are dead? No sir! All of the distros listed above still command a very healthy market-share and dedicated user base.
But these other distros are quickly becoming “Ubuntu Alternatives“.
That’s a pretty major change from where things stood in 2003.
And I think it is awesome.
Why? I’ll give you two big reasons:
- It allows a clear, consistent image of “Linux” to be portrayed to the general public.
- It allows developers (of both open source and closed source commercial software) to focus on one single environment first. This can save a great deal of time and money, and allow for higher quality software.
Some people may not like this (okay… I know many people who don’t like this), but it simply looks to be the way things are going. I’d be willing to bet that, in a few years, people will equate “Ubuntu” with “Linux”.
But really, it’s not like the other choices have gone away. And it’s not like the Linux Action Show is going to suddenly become the “Ubuntu Action Show” or something nutty like that. But the numbers don’t lie.
New Jupiter Broadcasting Store
It finally happened. After several years… Jupiter Broadcasting finally has a store… store.JupiterBroadcasting.com.
We’re still fleshing it out and adding more goodies, more clothing and the like. But it is live and fully functional right now.
We don’t handle any of the transactions ourselves. All purchases end up going through Amazon, Printfection (for the clothing), etc..
Along with the store launching you can find the Jupiter Broadcasting clothing line-up. Including Linux Action Show shirts and hoodies… as well as shirts that, ahem, make a statement.
We also have sections dedicated to Star Trek, Comics, Linux… and other geeky pursuits.
Every purchase made through the store goes towards off-setting the cost of producing the shows at Jupiter Broadcasting. We don’t get much per sale, but every little bit helps! (And, besides, it doesn’t cost you any extra to go through our store than through Amazon.com directly… so why not, right?)
The Linux Action Show Returns!
I can contain myself no longer! This secret is burning a hole in my… secret pocket!
The Linux Action Show, the alpha and omega of Linux podcasts, is back.
This Saturday (February 20th) at 5pm (Pacific Standard Time) we will be recording the first episode of Season 11 of the Linux Action Show and, of course, the whole thing will be streamed live (in full video glory) over at Jupiterbroadcasting.com/live.
And, starting with Season 11, the Linux Action Show is going to a weekly schedule. That’s right. A brand-spanking-new episode, packed with Linux-y goodness, each and every week!
Will we talk about Windows Phone Series 7 Phone Windows Series Windows Phone 7 Phone? No.
Will we talk about Apple’s latest round of sticking an “i” in front of a word? No.
Will we talk about Maemo/Moblin/MeeGo, open source NVidia drivers with 3D acceleration and the latest Linux Distro releases? Oh hells yes.
So, this Saturday, head over to JupiterBroadcasting.com/live and join in the live chat while we record the return of the best freaking show about Linux to ever grace this fine planet of ours.
UPDATE:
Thanks to everyone who tuned in to the live show! And, for those who missed it, you can watch it here or over at JupiterBroadcasting.com (where you can also snag an audio only version for those who like to listen in the car).
WHUT.
This is a picture. Of a thing. Do not think too hard about it. Also do not go here on Saturday at 5pm (PST).
It’s Kindle (Development Kit) Time!
I’ve always been a big fan of eBook readers. And I’ve been pretty vocal about the Kindle being my favorite of the bunch.
For me it’s the combination of the thumb keyboard and the free wireless data that makes the Kindle so compelling.
The one limiting factor, in my mind, has been the inability to develop and distribute custom applications (and games).
That’s all changing, now that the Kindle Software Development Kit (or “KDK” for short) is available in Beta form.
Of course, the very second I heard this was going to be made available, I hopped on over to the KDK website and signed myself up. Shortly thereafter I had my account approved and I was off and running.
(Amazon is being selective right now about who gets access to the KDK. Which makes sense as it is still in Beta. This will, I am sure, open up a great deal later on.)
I’m not sure how much I can publicly talk about, or if I can show screenshots, etc. (if it turns out Amazon is okay with me “spilling beans” and “lifting the curtain a bit”, you can be sure I will here on my blog) but, in the meantime, here’s a quick synopsis of what you can already publicly find out:
- Applications are written in Java.
- A Kindle Simulator is included to test your Kindle apps.
- Developers keep 70% of the sale price of each application sold.
- Applications can be sold as a one time purchase, or on a monthly subscription model.
That last tidbit is pretty cool (and something that the various other mobile device “App Stores” don’t currently offer). The ability to provide applications (and “Active Content”) as a monthly subscription opens up a lot of possibilities for developers and publishers.
Now, I know what many of you are thinking: What software can you possibly make on a Kindle? The e-Ink screen has a slow re-draw rate. And the built-in wireless is pretty slow (by WiFi standards). And there’s no built-in camera, GPS, etc.. So what can you create?
All I can say, right now, is this: I have ideas. And, I bet if you think for a bit about what you can do with a custom application on a device like this (battery life measured in weeks, keyboard, wireless, great screen for reading), you’ll think of a few ideas yourself.
So, am I making software for the Kindle? Yes. You bet. Abso-freaking-lutely.
And, hopefully, I’ll be able to talk more about it and chronicle my progress here.
In the mean-time, I’ve gone ahead and published this very blog to the Kindle Store. So, now you can follow me from your Kindle (if you are so lucky as to have one).
